ISBIS4 Abstract

Contact Author's Name: Richard Jarrett
Title of Abstract: Tales from the Trenches - modelling failures in water pipes
Author(s): Richard Jarrett
Affiliation: CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences

Water utilities typically have detailed data on their water pipes, including date laid, length, material, diameter and various environmental parameters. Data on failures in the water pipes often extends back only for the last ten years and can be patchy.

Models to describe the data need to take the quality of the data into account. We will describe the use of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model the data. This leads to generalised linear models, in which the data shows considerable extra-Poisson variation. Random effects models then provide reliable models for the data. We will show how this leads both to prediction of future failure rates, but also to the evaluation of a variety of management strategies.