ISBIS4 Abstract

Contact Author's Name: Yvette Everingham
Title of Abstract: Statistical Climate Forecasting Systems - Helping the Australian Sugar Industry Make Better Decisions More Often
Author(s): Yvette Everingham
Affiliation: Statistical Intelligent Data Analysis Group, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4814/CSIRO, University Road, Townsville, Queensland 4814, Australia Like many industries, the Australian Sugar Industry operates under varying extremes in climate. Over a period of time, the industry has developed a system of \"best-bet\" strategies derived in the anticipation of \'average\' or \'usual\' climate. When climate conditions deviate from this expectation many of these best-bet strategies become inappropriate. This highlights opportunity to improve forward planning by better integrating seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) with decision making processes in the Australian sugar industry. Numerous organisations worldwide and within Australia are in the \'business\' of forecasting climate. These organisations regularly update information on climate indices and detail the chance of rain and temperature months in advance, for places all around the world. Given the enormous impacts that climate has on the Australian Sugar Industry, it is reasonable to question why interest levels in SCF in the Australian Sugar Industry have only recently ! begun to rise. This presentation will highlight how simple statistical tools have been utilised to better communicate climate forecasts to industry clients, many of whom have limited formal education, but together combine to contribute in excess of one billion dollars to the economy of the nation.

Owing to the increasing operational use of climate forecasting systems for sugar industry practices, there is a need to more formally assess which climate forecasting system is "best". There is a great deal of debate amongst the scientific community on how to compare climate forecasting systems "fairly". The second part of this presentation will highlight some of the issues surrounding this debate, and suggest strategies for comparing climate forecasting systems on an "even playing field".